Governor Rankings

Final gubernatorial ratings: Two races left to watch

2008-11-01T12:41:00.000-07:00

Gubernatorial races were never going to be the hottest item of the 2008 cycle, but for a while we at least had four highly competitive races to follow. No longer: Democrat Jay Nixon and Republican Mitch Daniels have gained a decisive edge in Missouri and Indiana and they should coast in their respective governor's mansion with ease.

That leaves us with two toss-up gubernatorial races - but what toss-ups they are! In North Carolina, Beverly Perdue and Pat McCrory are locked in one of the most unpredictable races in the country; Perdue has not been able to benefit from Barack Obama and Kay Hagan's coattails, leading to a startling situation in which North Carolina Democrats seem less likely to hold the governor's mansion than to win the presidential and senatorial races! What has happened to the Tar Heel State?

In Washington, the rematch between Christine Gregoire and Dino Rossi is proving to be just as acrimonious as the bruising recounts that settled their first contests. In fact, given that Democrats seem unlikely to lose a Senate seat and that no other Democratic Governor is vulnerable, Gregoire is the most endangered Democratic incumbent to hold statewide office in the country. That she has been unable to put the race away in this pro-Democratic environment is a testament to how weak a position she is in electorally. In a neutral environment, Rossi would likely be ahead, but Obama's coattails could be too much for the Republican to overcome.

While I might still make changes to House ratings and will certainly update my Senate rankings before Tuesday, this will be the final gubernatorial ratings for 2008... That's how close we are to Election Day!

The full ratings are available here. Below are descriptions of the three races whose rating I am changing: Missouri, Indiana and Vermont.

Indiana, lean Republican to likely Republican: Governor Mitch Daniels has been on the Democrats' target list for years and rightly so: his unpopularity was a crucial factor in the GOP's collapse in 2006 (when three of their House incumbents lost). The one obstacle to a Daniels loss was the state's heavily conservative lean and the fact that he would benefit from the GOP's presidential coattails. Who could have predicted that the exact opposite would happen? Democrats are unexpectedly competitive at the federal level and they have been unable to translate that into gains at the gubernatorial level. (A similar situation is unfolding in North Carolina.)

Former representative Jill Long Thompson has not had the money to compete with Daniels, she had to go off the air for a while in the fall and close campaign offices, meaning that she has no organization but Obama's to rely on in the state's more conservative regions. And the very same polls that have Obama and McCain in a dead heat show Daniels leading by wide margins. An upset is still possible - particularly if Democratic turnout is much higher than expected - but Daniels is far stronger than anyone could have expected a few months ago.

Missouri, lean Democratic to likely Democratic: Attorney General Jay Nixon was always expected to win this race, but the ease with which he is stream-rolling Republican congressman Kenny Hulshof is remarkable given that Missouri is certainly no easy state for Democrats to win in. Nixon's lead in polls typically exceeds 15%, and Hulshof's best efforts to dismiss him as too far to the left have not made a dent in polls.

Vermont, safe to likely Republican: In this three-way race in which independent candidate Anthony Pollina could very well come ahead of Democratic nominee Gay Symington, Republican Governor Jim Douglas is guaranteed to finish first. Yet, a quirk in state law complicates the situation: If no candidate crosses 50%, the election will be thrown into the legislature, controlled by Democrats. The legislature is likely to follow the will of voters and elect whichever candidate comes out on top (as they did in 2002), but nothing prevents them from seating Symington.

September ratings: Fate of two Dem-held seats could depend on Obama's coattails

2008-08-20T00:14:00.000-07:00

Gubernatorial races have never been a focus this year since only four seats are in any sense competitive - and of these four two have grown less interesting over the past few months. In Missouri, Attorney General Jay Nixon has been in a strong position for months, but Republicans were hoping that Rep. Kenny Hulshof's primary victory would give him enough of a bounce to make this race more suspenseful; that does not appear to have happened. In Indiana, incumbent Governor Mitch Daniels has solidified his position since the spring, and the financial difficulties of Democratic challenger Jill Long Thompson are forcing her to rely on Obama's ground game to pull an upset.

That only leaves two highly competitive races, both of which are currently held by Democrats. In North Carolina, Beverly Perdue and Pat McCrory continue to pounce each other but neither appears to be getting an edge; in Washington, Governor Gregoire looks very vulnerable in a rematch of her controversial 2004 match-up, as the assumption that she would have had time to entrench herself does not appear to have played out. What is interesting is that the fundamentals in both states should favor Democrats. Washington leans blue - especially in such a Democratic year. And not only does North Carolina typically vote Democratic in state-level races, but Barack Obama's stunning competitiveness reduces Perdue's need to convince voters to split their vote. In both Washington and North Carolina, therefore, Barack Obama's coattails could be enough to carry Gregoire and Perdue across the finish line, but any last minute show of strength by John McCain could improve the GOP brand and allow Rossi and McCrory to upset historical trends.

Lean take-over (1 R)

1. Missouri (Open; Previous rating: 1)

Rep. Kenny Hulshof prevailed in a very heated Republican primary back in August, and that is likely to be his only victory of the 2008 cycle. Attorney General Jay Nixon has been campaigning for the gubernatorial position for nearly four years now, and he is being further boosted by this year's Democratic environment. Nixon has led throughout the contest, and he is comfortably ahead in the most recent polls. One added bonus for Nixon is that Barack Obama is showing no sign of giving up on the Show Me State so that he will be able to rely on Obama's turnout machine to boost his own totals; that was not the case for Claire McCaskill in 2004.

Toss-up (2 D)

2. North Carolina (Open; Previous rating: 2)

Who knew that North Carolina's top three statewide races would all be rated toss-ups - the only state in the country that is in such a position. Just as Republicans John McCain and Elizabeth Dole were expected to have an edge in the presidential and senatorial races, Democratic Lieutenant Governor Beverly Perdue (or Bev Perdue, as ballots will be marked) looked favor to keep the governorship in Democratic hands. But Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory is proving to be a strong candidate for Republicans.

McCrory is pounding Perdue on ethical issues, seeking to make an issue of the Democrats' hold on state government and corruption scandals that have erupted over the years. While Perdue has never been involved in any, she has been working in state government for decades and McCrory is hoping to take advantage of that by directly referencing the "culture of corruption." Meanwhile, and in a telling sign that North Carolina is not as reliably conservative as some might expect, Perdue is not hesitating to duplicate the strategic blueprint Democrats have been using in bluer parts of the country. She is hitting McCrory for his support of Bush's agenda and for benefiting from Bush's help - and she is also invoking social issues by running ads against McCrory hitting him on stem cells. Those spots have led to some of the toughest exchanges of the race, and McCrory accused Perdue of exploiting the sick for political purposes.

The latest polls are showing a dead heat, with a number of surveys finding McCrory holding an edge. But the only surveys that have found McCrory leading outside of the margin of error have also shown McCain leading comfortably, suggesting that McCrory's fate is dependent on a strong result at the top of the ticket - and the fact that Obama has a far superior ground game and has registered thousands of new Democratic-leaning voters could make the difference in Perdue's favor if the election remains close.

3. Washington (Gov. Gregoire; Previous rating: 4)

This is the first time that I am rating this race a toss-up. It seemed likely that Christine Gregoire would be able to rely on the advantage of incumbency in a blue state in a Democratic year to take a decisive advantage over Dino Rossi. Instead, the contest looks just as tight as it did four years ago - so tight, in fact, that SUSA's surveys have found the margin to be within the MoE for seven polls in a row. Other pollsters also find a dead heat.

All of this points to the simple fact that Gregoire remains eminently vulnerable, and that she was not able to fully legitimize herself after her controversial 2004 victory on a second recount. Her fate largely depends on the national environment on Election Day, as a Democratic breeze would likely be enough to push her across the finish line. Rossi needs the GOP brand to improve a bit, and he is fully aware that the biggest obstacle to his election is his party label. That is why he has gotten to be listed on the ballot as "GOP party" rather than as "Republican." Democrats sued against Rossi's maneuver, but a judge just ruled in Rossi's favor.

Lean retention (1 R)

4. Indiana (Gov. Daniels: Previous rating: 3)

You can't blame Democrats for having high hopes for toppling Mitch Daniels. The incumbent was so unpopular two years ago that he contributed to the state GOP's catastrophic results in the 2006 midterms. And polls throughout the spring showed Daniels locked in a dead heat against the two Democrats who were vying to oppose him. But it looks like the May 6th primary was the high point of Jill Long Thompson's campaign. She is now in a difficult position financially and she was recently forced to close some offices and cancel TV advertising for at least an entire week of September. And Daniels has opened a decisive lead in the polls of the past few months, usually above the 50% vulnerability threshold. Long Thompson is still not out of contention, but her fate appears to be largely dependent on that of Barack Obama, and she will need to ride Obama's organization and ground game to reach voters she would not be able to organize herself.

Safe

5. Montana (Gov. Schweitzer)

6. Vermont (Gov. Douglas)

7. Delaware (Open)

The Democratic nomination opposing the Lieutenant Governor and the state Treasurer looked like it would essentially serve as the contest's general election, and Treasurer Jack Markell prevailed in that contest. He now faces a little known Republican, and the one public poll of the race confirms Markell has little to fear.

8. West Virginia (Gov. Manchin)

9. New Hampshire (Gov. Lynch)

10. North Dakota (Gov. Hoeven)

11. Utah (Gov. Huntsman)

July rankings: Four races remain heated, but only one toss-up remains

2008-06-02T20:47:00.000-07:00

The 2008 gubernatorial races were never meant to be the cycle's most suspenseful contests, but my March ratings found that the top four races had gotten unexpectedly more competitive, with three making their way to the toss-up rating. Yet, things have quieted down over the past few months. For one, heated Democratic primaries in Indiana and North Carolina were resolved and it will take some time before the general election in these states reaches full speed. Meanwhile, Missouri's Democratic Attorney General Jay Nixon is expanding his lead over his two potential opponents in what is looking like it could be a runaway race.

As a result, only one contest remains a toss-up in this month's ratings -- but what a toss-up it is! Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory's victory in the GOP primary guarantees that North Carolina will host three crucial and competitive statewide elections this fall: Obama's success at putting the state in play will determine whether he can hope to win a landslide election, the Hagan-Dole race is key for Democratic hopes to reach a 60 seat majority (the seat is at the top of the second-tier of Senate races which were not supposed to be endangered and its loss could open the floodgates of a blue tsunami) and the GOP will try to score its fourth gubernatorial victory since the 19th century. And remember that this is the state that sunk Hillary Clinton's presidential ambition: North Carolina will have played quite a role in 2008.

The previous gubernatorial ratings, written in March, are available here. For descriptions of the races that have no description here and that are rated “Safe”, check the first gubernatorial ratings, written back in September.

Lean take-over (1 R)

1. Missouri (Open; Previous rating: Toss-up)

The contested Republican primary will not be resolved until August 5th. Rep. Kenny Hulshof and state Treasurer Sarah Steelman are running to become their party's nominee, and the former looks to have lined up much of the party's establishment behind him. But the result of their contest might not matter much as Democratic Attorney General Jay Nixon has been campaigning for four years now. This cycle's Democratic environment might be too much for his opponents to overcome, and Nixon has opened up a huge lead against either of his opponents in the latest polls. Democrats hope that this election will be a repeat of Colorado's 2006 gubernatorial race and Minnesota's 2006 senatorial race, both open races that were supposed to remain competitive but in which the Democratic candidate rode the GOP malaise to an early lead and never relinquished it.

Toss-up (1R, 1D)

2. North Carolina (Open; Previous rating: Toss-up)

Both parties settled contested primaries on May 6th. On the Democratic side, Lieutenant Governor Beverly Perdue survived a strong challenge by state Treasurer Richard Moore, who aired negative ads in the closing weeks of the campaign. On the Republican side, Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory prevailed in a primary that was less nasty -- and this is the sort of difference that can impact a general election. Since the primary, both candidates have been gearing up for the general election... and McCrory has received the help of George Bush who joined his party's candidate for a fundraiser in Raleigh. No joint photograph of the two men was authorized, but the state Democratic party is already hitting McCrory for his ties to Bush, highlighting the dismal state of the Republican brand, even in a Southern state.

McCrory is a much stronger contender than Republicans were hoping to get just a few months ago, and this race looks to be the most suspenseful gubernatorial contest of the cycle (which isn't saying a lot). Early polls suggest that neither candidate has the advantage but that McCrory might be able to peel away the support of independent-minded voters and conservative Democrats who have been critical to a string of state-level Democratic successes. In fact, how competitive the presidential election becomes could impact the result of the Perdue-McCrory contest. If there is a boost in black turnout as some are predicting, it would make it difficult for Republicans to pick up the governor's mansion.

Lean Retention (1 D)

3. Indiana (Gov. Daniels; Previous rating: Toss-up)

The Democratic primary between Jill Long Thompson and architect Schellinger (favored by the state's establishment) was even tighter than the state's crucial Clinton-Obama contest, with results delayed by Lake County and Long Thompson triumphing by 0.6%. Now in a quest to become the state's first female governor, Long Thompson first has to ensure financial viability. While polls showed no electability difference between the two Democrats, Schellinger was more successful at fundraising. Seeking to attract some attention in a dull campaign period, Long Thompson announced her running-mate and she benefited from glowing headlines after her speech at the state convention for "making history' as the first female candidate.

Yet, three polls taken in the past two months find Daniels settling in a narrow but consistent lead -- leading me to downgrade the race to lean retention for the first time. But the race remains competitive: however much Daniels has improved his popularity over the past two years, he remains very vulnerable and Obama's decision to invest resources in Indiana will help Long Thompson get out the vote.

4. Washington (Gov. Gregoire; Previous rating: Lean retention)

In a neutral environment, this race would be the ultimate toss-up. The rematch of a 2004 race which ended in grotesque cacophony, Dino Rossi's challenge to Gregoire is hurt by the year's pro-Democratic bent. News that Rossi is shying away from his party label reveals the disadvantage he has to overcome. New election rules allow candidates to choose what party label will appear next to their name, and Rossi chose "GOP party" rather than "Republican" (note that the Republican candidate for insurance commissioner is running with no party label
at all). However, polls find that the race remains very tight and there is every indication that it will be very nasty as well: A recent controversy over whether Democrats were playing the "Italian card" against Rossi by using the Soprano music in an ad against him confirms that there is little chance that the 2004 bitterness can be overcome.

Likely retention (1 D)

5. Delaware (Open)

Delaware hosts a very late primary date, meaning that Lt. Gov John Carney and state Treasurer Jack Martell will continue to battle for the Democratic nomination all the way to September 9th. Thankfully for the incumbent party, the Republicans have no credible candidate who could benefit from Democratic divisions so that Sept. 9th is essentially the general election for this contest.

Safe

6. Montana (Gov. Schweitzer)

Brian Schweitzer is sometimes mentioned as a possible running-mate for Barack Obama, though he remains an unlikely pick. But his selection could create havoc in Montana politics.

7. Vermont (Gov. Douglas)

8. West Virginia (Gov. Manchin)

9. New Hampshire (Gov. Lynch)

A new poll released by ARG in June shows John Lynch crusing his minor opposition Joseph Kenney 65% to 21%. That pretty much sums up where this race is at.

10. North Dakota (Gov. Hoeven)

11. Utah (Gov. Huntsman)

March Rankings: Top four races get more interesting

2008-03-30T19:08:00.000-07:00

Presidential years are not the most active in terms of gubernatorial races, and 2008 is no exception, with only 11 states holding elections, only 5 of which are not entirely safe for the incumbent party. But there has been some movement within those five races, as many of them have gotten considerably (and unexpectedly) more competitive in the past few months.

The retirement of Gov. Blunt in Missouri, the heated Democratic primaries in North Carolina and Indiana, the candidacy of Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory, and Dino Rossi's attempts to rouse passions in Washington all guarantee that these 4 states will remain competitive to November and keep things interesting on the gubernatorial front. And since both parties control 2 of these 4 most contested governorships, Republicans can at least be relieved that things look more even-handed here than in the Senate and the House.

The previous gubernatorial ratings, written in December, are available here. For descriptions of the races that have no description here and that are rated "Safe", check the first gubernatorial rankings.

Toss-up (2 R, 1 D)

1. Missouri (Open)

Missouri's gubernatorial race made a lot of news comparatively to other gubernatorial races. The showdown between Republican Gov. Blunt and Democratic Attorney General Jay Nixon had started as early as 2004, and the incumbent's growing unpopularity had given the early lead to Nixon. But Blunt unexpectedly announced his retirement in late January.

Republicans hurried to find a nominee and they will now have to decide between two strong candidates, congressman Kenny Hulshof and state Treasurer Sarah Steelman. Either would keep the race competitive but Nixon undoubtedly has a head start given that he has been preparing his campaign for so long -- and that the state's voters have turned sour on their Republican administration.

2. North Carolina (Open; Previous ranking: 4)

Republican at the federal level, North Carolina remains blue at the state level, and Democrats looked favored to keep the governor's mansion next year with two strong candidates -- Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue and state Treasurer Richard Moore -- battling for the Democratic nomination. But two factors have made the race more competitive.

(1) The Democratic primary is staying very competitive and now going negative, with Moore needing to shake up the race to contest Perdue's early edge. (2) Republicans got a potentially very competitive candidate in the race with with the entry of Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory. Polls show McCrory in toss-ups against both Perdue and Moore, with the Democrats holding the slightest of edges.

The GOP primary is also contested, however, and it remains unclear who will emerge to claim the party's nod. We will now more about the state of play in North Carolina after the May 6th primary.

3. Indiana (Gov. Daniels; Previous ranking: 2)

Republican Gov. Mitch Daniels is certainly unpopular and vulnerable, but it is difficult to precisely assess the general election before Democrats settle their nomination race on May 6th. Architect Jim Schellinger has been the establishment's favored candidate and has far outraised his opposition, but former Rep. Jill Long Thompson could emerge the winner due to higher name recognition. The Indianapolis Star reports that Schellinger's campaign has been a disappointment while Thompson has been very active and that his fundraising edge could be drowned amidst the presidential race if Clinton and Obama spend millions in ads here in the next few weeks.

Lean Retention (2 D)

4. Washington (Gov. Gregoire; Previous ranking: 3)

The 2004 campaign never really stopped in Washington, where Republican Dino Rossi lost by 129 votes on the third count after leading the first two ballot counts. Christine Gregoire started off a controversial term and has done her best to overcome the partisan rancor of her first election. Rossi announced his second gubernatorial candidacy in late 2007, and he has been campaigning hard since then, hoping to rouse the passions of 2004, bringing up the recount on the trail to undermine the legitimacy of Gregoire's incumbency. This race will be tight (and bitter) to the end but Gregoire has been able to somewhat regain her footing over the past few years and built some good will which give her a slight edge to start with.

Likely retention (1 D)

5. Delaware (Open)

Much of the action in this race is taking place in the Democratic primary, which features Lt. Gov John Carney and state Treasurer Jack Martell (one of the DLC's rising stars in 2000). Meanwhile, the Republicans who could have made this somewhat interesting all declined to run, primarily citing the impossibility the impossibility to match Democrats financially, leaving the GOP with an airline pilot and a state employee (who lost in 2004).

Safe

6. Montana (Gov. Schweitzer)

7. Vermont (Gov. Douglas)

8. West Virginia (Gov. Manchin)

9. New Hampshire (Gov. Lynch)

To tie up very popular Gov. Lynch, Republicans were hoping to convince Manchester Mayor Guinta to jump in the gubernatorial race and thought they had succeeded when Guinta disappointed them mid-March by announcing he would stay out. That leaves Republicans with no serious candidate, giving Lynch a free pass to re-election.

10. North Dakota (Gov. Hoeven)

11. Utah (Gov. Huntsman)

December rankings: Not much to see in gubernatorial races

2007-12-01T10:42:00.000-08:00

The two most vulnerable seats in my last rankings (Louisiana and Kentucky) were 2007 elections -- and both states saw pick-ups, as Jindal became the new GOP Governor of Louisiana and Democrat Beshear defeat incumbent Fletcher in Kentucky. Meanwhile Mississippi, rated "safe" in September, voted to re-elect Governor Haley Barbour.

That leaves us with 11 races to be decided next year of which only three look to be competitive, not a very reach crop for those who like to follow gubernatorial elections. Democrats can hope to throw out unpopular incumbent governor Indiana and Missouri, while Dino Rossi will try to unseat Governor Gregoire in Washington in a rematch of the 2004 race that Republicans believe Rossi had won. This creates the unusual picture that none of the competitive races are open seats, since the two open goversnorships (Delaware and North Carolina) lean Democratic at this time.

Since the last rankings released in September, there were two changes of rankings: Indiana was upgraded from "lean retention" to "toss-up" as polls indicated that Daniels was in deep trouble; and North Carolina was downgraded from "lean retention" to "likely retention" as Republicans show no intention of seriously challenging the seat.

For descriptions of the races that have no description here and that are rated "Safe", check the previous rankings.

Toss-up

1. Missouri (Gov. Blunt)

This race started years ago, as Attorney General Nixon started campaigning as soon as Blunt won his first term. In this much anticipated show-down, Blunt will have a hard time escaping the burden of the GOP and his own high negatives. The most recent poll has Nixon up big, but most surveys show a tied up race. The partisan intensity the race already has makes it likely the race goes down the wire, with perhaps the tiniest of edges to Nixon.

2. Indiana (Gov. Daniels)

Governor Daniels quickly became very unpopular with his privatization of state tolls and his reform of time zones (I know, strange). But Republicans thought he had recovered a bit, and that Democrats had hurt their chances by failing to recruit a top challenger. I myself had rated this race Lean Retention in September. But with a new poll showing Daniels trailing (though he is statistically tied) both of his Democratic challengers (former Rep. Jill Long-Thompson and architect Jim Schellinger), it appears that Daniels has not only not recovered, but that both Democrats are in a good position to take the governor's mansion.

Lean Retention

3. Washington (Gov. Gregoire)

Since the last rankings, Dino Rossi became a candidate - though no one had any doubt that he was in the race. After Gregoire's contentious 129 votes victory after a third recount in 2004, this is clearly going to go down the wire. Gregoire starts off with a small edge because she has had time to rebuild her image in the past three years and because Washington tilts Democratic -- and that should help, especially in a Democratic year. The GOP was confident of challenging the incumbent Senators in the past two cycles, and kept touting their challenger to Cantwell in 2006 -- and they flopped both times. Dino Rossi is a strong candidate though, and will keep this competitive.

Likely retention

4. North Carolina (Open)

Democratic Governor Easley cannot run due to term-limits, and it's now all about the Democratic primary here between Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue and state Treasurer Richard Moore. A recent poll had Perdue ahead, but by a smaller margin than anticipated, so the Democratic primary could get ugly. However, Democrats remain favored to keep the governship that they have held since 1992. Republicans have much weaker candidates than the well-known Perdue and Moore (business Graham, former state Justice Orr and state Senator Smith) and they will start lagging behind. North Carolina might go Republican in presidential races, but it likes voting Democratic in state elections.

5. Delaware (Open)

Just like North Carolina, the Democratic governor cannot run again and two profile Democrats are vying for their party's nod. Coincidentally, they occupy the same positions as Perdue and Moore: Lt. Gov John Carney and state Treasurer Jack Martell (one of the DLC's rising stars in 2000). Republicans have some candidates, but they are not as high-profile at all (some state Senators) -- and Delaware remains a very Democratic state, which should give Carney or Martell the necessary boost to prevail without too much of a fight.

Safe

6. Montana (Gov. Schweitzer)

7. Vermont (Gov. Douglas)

8. West Virginia (Gov. Manchin)

9. New Hampshire (Gov. Lynch)

10. North Dakota (Gov. Hoeven)

11. Utah (Gov. Huntsman)

Governorships likely to stay stable

2007-09-22T15:32:00.000-07:00

Few people are paying attention to the 14 gubernatorial races that will be decided in the next 15 months (3 are happening this fall, and the 11 remaining are set for 2008). Yet, these contests will play a major role in deciding who holds control of Congress in the next decade: The governors who will be elected in those 14 states will hold control of redistricting after the next census, and each party wants to be ready for maximal gerrymandering in 2011.

With that in mind, let's rank these races, from the most vulnerable to turnover to the one where the incumbent party feels the safest. It immediately appears that very few of these races are likely to be contested at all, especially the ones that will be decided in 2008. Democrats and Republicans will swap Louisiana and Kentucky this fall, and then fight in only two-three states next year. A stark contrast to the 2006 cycle.

Likely Takeover

1. Kentucky (Gov. Fletcher)
The first of the 2007 races. Fletcher has been facing huge allegations of misconduct and has even been indicted. This pushed Anne Northup, a congresswoman defeated in 2006, to challenge him in the primary last spring, but Fletcher inexplicably survived. He is now almost assured of going down in this November's election against Democrat Steve Beshear, who has led every opinion poll by an average 20%. Democrats are now running ads using Northup's words against Fletcher. Count on Fletcher losing his executive immunity in less than two months.

2. Louisiana (Open)
The second of the 2007 races. Republican Bobby Jindal almost became Governor in 2003 but came short against Blanco, who chose earlier this year to not run for re-election given her low approval ratings post-Katrina. Jindal became a House member in 2004, and he now looks unstoppable. Louisiana has no primary system, and the first round will take place in late October. Democrats have fielded weak candidates, and their only hope is to hold Jindal under 50% to force him into a one-on-one runoff in early December, but they would have little chance even then. Louisiana is rapidly drifting Republican.

Toss-up

3. Missouri (Gov. Blunt)
Blunt barely won his first term in 2004 against Democrat McKaskill, who since then became Senator. The 2008 campaign started almost immediately, as it became clear that AG Nixon intended to take Blunt on. The race has been nasty for months already. Given Nixon's statewide recognition and Blunt's unpopularity, Nixon might have the slightest of edges.

Lean Retention

4. Indiana (Gov. Daniels)
Republicans collapsed in Indiana in 2006 and lost 3 House seats. It was mostly due to the unpopularity of Governor Mitch Daniels, mostly because of his attempt to raise taxes and privatize the state's toll system. Daniels has partially recovered, but he faces still offopposition. Democrats have a competitive primary, with former congresswoman Jill Long-Thompson and architect Jim Schellinger leading for now. A mid-September poll showed Daniels under 50% with a low double-digits lead.

5. Washington (Gov. Gregoire)
Gregoire won against Republican Rossi by only 129 votes in 2004, and only after a third vote count overturned the results of the first two nearly two months after the election. Rossi has vowed to get revenge, and is planning to jump in the race for a bitter rematch. Gregoire started off her term supremely unpopular, but she has since recovered and posts decent ratings. If this election had been held in 2005, Rossi would have walked away with it. In 2008, it will be a very different story.

6. North Carolina (Open)
Mike Easley cannot run for re-election , but Democrats are confident they will overcome the state's Republican lean and keep the governor's mansion. They have a very deep bench in the state, and both the Lieutenant Governor (Beverly Purdue) and the state treasurer (Richard Moore) are running for the nomination (why neither of those two nor Easley is challenging Dole in the Senate race is a mystery to all). Republicans have a few candidates of their own who could pull this off, but they same a tier under the Democratic candidates. This might very well turn into a total toss-up, but not right now.

Safe

7. Delaware (Open)
That Delaware is ranked as high as 7 is really a testament to the fact that there aren't that many competitive seats. Gov. Miller cannot run for re-election, and Democrats have a divisive primary in their hand between Lieutenant Governor Carney and state treasurer Markell, who was named one of the DLC's rising stars in 2000. Republicans are only fielding a weak candidate who will likely have no chance against the Democratic nominee.

8. Montana (Gov. Schweitzer)
Brian Schweitzer marked the first step of the Democratic resurgence in the West, and he remains very popular. Republicans might challenge him, but if they manage to convince a top-tier Republican to run for something, they would probably try to push him in the Senate race.

9. Vermont (Gov. Douglas)
Vermont holds elections every two years, and Jim Douglas has already won three terms. He is looking for his fourth, and Democrats aren't likely to put out a serious challenge. Douglas's only worry is Vermont's strong Democratic roots, but don't count on those threatening him this time around.

10. Mississippi (Gov. Barbour)
The third 2007 race. Barbour is running against Democrat John Eaves, but is heavily favored to win re-election. Voters are giving him hard marks for his post-Katrina policies, and give him credit for having helped the state -- despite overwhelming evidence of the contrary. Barbour is also rumored as a VP candidate.

11. West Virginia (Gov. Manchin)
Manchin has been a longtime figure of West Virginia politics, and he has remained popular throughout. WV has been trending Republican in the last decade, but the GOP is looking unlikely to even field a serious candidate.

12. New Hampshire (Gov. Lynch)
New Hampshire has gubernatorial elections every two years. Gov. Lynch won re-election in 2006 with 74% of the vote. Republicans night field a candidate from the state senate, but Lynch is enjoying an extremely high approval rating and he will get another term

13. North Dakota (Gov. Hoeven)
One of the most popular GOP governors in the country running for re-election in one of the most Republican states of the country. Democrats have had lots of success in congressional races (the entire DC delegation is Democratic!), but they won't even dream of unseating Hoeven.

14. Utah (Gov. Huntsman)
See North Dakota. Minus the part about Democrats having occasional statewide success.