July rankings: Four races remain heated, but only one toss-up remains

The 2008 gubernatorial races were never meant to be the cycle's most suspenseful contests, but my March ratings found that the top four races had gotten unexpectedly more competitive, with three making their way to the toss-up rating. Yet, things have quieted down over the past few months. For one, heated Democratic primaries in Indiana and North Carolina were resolved and it will take some time before the general election in these states reaches full speed. Meanwhile, Missouri's Democratic Attorney General Jay Nixon is expanding his lead over his two potential opponents in what is looking like it could be a runaway race.

As a result, only one contest remains a toss-up in this month's ratings -- but what a toss-up it is! Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory's victory in the GOP primary guarantees that North Carolina will host three crucial and competitive statewide elections this fall: Obama's success at putting the state in play will determine whether he can hope to win a landslide election, the Hagan-Dole race is key for Democratic hopes to reach a 60 seat majority (the seat is at the top of the second-tier of Senate races which were not supposed to be endangered and its loss could open the floodgates of a blue tsunami) and the GOP will try to score its fourth gubernatorial victory since the 19th century. And remember that this is the state that sunk Hillary Clinton's presidential ambition: North Carolina will have played quite a role in 2008.

The previous gubernatorial ratings, written in March, are available here. For descriptions of the races that have no description here and that are rated “Safe”, check the first gubernatorial ratings, written back in September.

Lean take-over (1 R)

1. Missouri (Open; Previous rating: Toss-up)

The contested Republican primary will not be resolved until August 5th. Rep. Kenny Hulshof and state Treasurer Sarah Steelman are running to become their party's nominee, and the former looks to have lined up much of the party's establishment behind him. But the result of their contest might not matter much as Democratic Attorney General Jay Nixon has been campaigning for four years now. This cycle's Democratic environment might be too much for his opponents to overcome, and Nixon has opened up a huge lead against either of his opponents in the latest polls. Democrats hope that this election will be a repeat of Colorado's 2006 gubernatorial race and Minnesota's 2006 senatorial race, both open races that were supposed to remain competitive but in which the Democratic candidate rode the GOP malaise to an early lead and never relinquished it.

Toss-up (1R, 1D)

2. North Carolina (Open; Previous rating: Toss-up)

Both parties settled contested primaries on May 6th. On the Democratic side, Lieutenant Governor Beverly Perdue survived a strong challenge by state Treasurer Richard Moore, who aired negative ads in the closing weeks of the campaign. On the Republican side, Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory prevailed in a primary that was less nasty -- and this is the sort of difference that can impact a general election. Since the primary, both candidates have been gearing up for the general election... and McCrory has received the help of George Bush who joined his party's candidate for a fundraiser in Raleigh. No joint photograph of the two men was authorized, but the state Democratic party is already hitting McCrory for his ties to Bush, highlighting the dismal state of the Republican brand, even in a Southern state.

McCrory is a much stronger contender than Republicans were hoping to get just a few months ago, and this race looks to be the most suspenseful gubernatorial contest of the cycle (which isn't saying a lot). Early polls suggest that neither candidate has the advantage but that McCrory might be able to peel away the support of independent-minded voters and conservative Democrats who have been critical to a string of state-level Democratic successes. In fact, how competitive the presidential election becomes could impact the result of the Perdue-McCrory contest. If there is a boost in black turnout as some are predicting, it would make it difficult for Republicans to pick up the governor's mansion.

Lean Retention (1 D)

3. Indiana (Gov. Daniels; Previous rating: Toss-up)

The Democratic primary between Jill Long Thompson and architect Schellinger (favored by the state's establishment) was even tighter than the state's crucial Clinton-Obama contest, with results delayed by Lake County and Long Thompson triumphing by 0.6%. Now in a quest to become the state's first female governor, Long Thompson first has to ensure financial viability. While polls showed no electability difference between the two Democrats, Schellinger was more successful at fundraising. Seeking to attract some attention in a dull campaign period, Long Thompson announced her running-mate and she benefited from glowing headlines after her speech at the state convention for "making history' as the first female candidate.

Yet, three polls taken in the past two months find Daniels settling in a narrow but consistent lead -- leading me to downgrade the race to lean retention for the first time. But the race remains competitive: however much Daniels has improved his popularity over the past two years, he remains very vulnerable and Obama's decision to invest resources in Indiana will help Long Thompson get out the vote.

4. Washington (Gov. Gregoire; Previous rating: Lean retention)

In a neutral environment, this race would be the ultimate toss-up. The rematch of a 2004 race which ended in grotesque cacophony, Dino Rossi's challenge to Gregoire is hurt by the year's pro-Democratic bent. News that Rossi is shying away from his party label reveals the disadvantage he has to overcome. New election rules allow candidates to choose what party label will appear next to their name, and Rossi chose "GOP party" rather than "Republican" (note that the Republican candidate for insurance commissioner is running with no party label
at all). However, polls find that the race remains very tight and there is every indication that it will be very nasty as well: A recent controversy over whether Democrats were playing the "Italian card" against Rossi by using the Soprano music in an ad against him confirms that there is little chance that the 2004 bitterness can be overcome.

Likely retention (1 D)

5. Delaware (Open)

Delaware hosts a very late primary date, meaning that Lt. Gov John Carney and state Treasurer Jack Martell will continue to battle for the Democratic nomination all the way to September 9th. Thankfully for the incumbent party, the Republicans have no credible candidate who could benefit from Democratic divisions so that Sept. 9th is essentially the general election for this contest.

Safe

6. Montana (Gov. Schweitzer)

Brian Schweitzer is sometimes mentioned as a possible running-mate for Barack Obama, though he remains an unlikely pick. But his selection could create havoc in Montana politics.

7. Vermont (Gov. Douglas)

8. West Virginia (Gov. Manchin)

9. New Hampshire (Gov. Lynch)

A new poll released by ARG in June shows John Lynch crusing his minor opposition Joseph Kenney 65% to 21%. That pretty much sums up where this race is at.

10. North Dakota (Gov. Hoeven)

11. Utah (Gov. Huntsman)