Governorships likely to stay stable
Few people are paying attention to the 14 gubernatorial races that will be decided in the next 15 months (3 are happening this fall, and the 11 remaining are set for 2008). Yet, these contests will play a major role in deciding who holds control of Congress in the next decade: The governors who will be elected in those 14 states will hold control of redistricting after the next census, and each party wants to be ready for maximal gerrymandering in 2011.
With that in mind, let's rank these races, from the most vulnerable to turnover to the one where the incumbent party feels the safest. It immediately appears that very few of these races are likely to be contested at all, especially the ones that will be decided in 2008. Democrats and Republicans will swap Louisiana and Kentucky this fall, and then fight in only two-three states next year. A stark contrast to the 2006 cycle.
The first of the 2007 races. Fletcher has been facing huge allegations of misconduct and has even been indicted. This pushed Anne Northup, a congresswoman defeated in 2006, to challenge him in the primary last spring, but Fletcher inexplicably survived. He is now almost assured of going down in this November's election against Democrat Steve Beshear, who has led every opinion poll by an average 20%. Democrats are now running ads using Northup's words against Fletcher. Count on Fletcher losing his executive immunity in less than two months.
2. Louisiana (Open)
The second of the 2007 races. Republican Bobby Jindal almost became Governor in 2003 but came short against Blanco, who chose earlier this year to not run for re-election given her low approval ratings post-Katrina. Jindal became a House member in 2004, and he now looks unstoppable. Louisiana has no primary system, and the first round will take place in late October. Democrats have fielded weak candidates, and their only hope is to hold Jindal under 50% to force him into a one-on-one runoff in early December, but they would have little chance even then. Louisiana is rapidly drifting Republican.
Blunt barely won his first term in 2004 against Democrat McKaskill, who since then became Senator. The 2008 campaign started almost immediately, as it became clear that AG Nixon intended to take Blunt on. The race has been nasty for months already. Given Nixon's statewide recognition and Blunt's unpopularity, Nixon might have the slightest of edges.
Republicans collapsed in Indiana in 2006 and lost 3 House seats. It was mostly due to the unpopularity of Governor Mitch Daniels, mostly because of his attempt to raise taxes and privatize the state's toll system. Daniels has partially recovered, but he faces still offopposition. Democrats have a competitive primary, with former congresswoman Jill Long-Thompson and architect Jim Schellinger leading for now. A mid-September poll showed Daniels under 50% with a low double-digits lead.
5. Washington (Gov. Gregoire)
Gregoire won against Republican Rossi by only 129 votes in 2004, and only after a third vote count overturned the results of the first two nearly two months after the election. Rossi has vowed to get revenge, and is planning to jump in the race for a bitter rematch. Gregoire started off her term supremely unpopular, but she has since recovered and posts decent ratings. If this election had been held in 2005, Rossi would have walked away with it. In 2008, it will be a very different story.
6. North Carolina (Open)
Mike Easley cannot run for re-election , but Democrats are confident they will overcome the state's Republican lean and keep the governor's mansion. They have a very deep bench in the state, and both the Lieutenant Governor (Beverly Purdue) and the state treasurer (Richard Moore) are running for the nomination (why neither of those two nor Easley is challenging Dole in the Senate race is a mystery to all). Republicans have a few candidates of their own who could pull this off, but they same a tier under the Democratic candidates. This might very well turn into a total toss-up, but not right now.
That Delaware is ranked as high as 7 is really a testament to the fact that there aren't that many competitive seats. Gov. Miller cannot run for re-election, and Democrats have a divisive primary in their hand between Lieutenant Governor Carney and state treasurer Markell, who was named one of the DLC's rising stars in 2000. Republicans are only fielding a weak candidate who will likely have no chance against the Democratic nominee.
8. Montana (Gov. Schweitzer)
Brian Schweitzer marked the first step of the Democratic resurgence in the West, and he remains very popular. Republicans might challenge him, but if they manage to convince a top-tier Republican to run for something, they would probably try to push him in the Senate race.
9. Vermont (Gov. Douglas)
Vermont holds elections every two years, and Jim Douglas has already won three terms. He is looking for his fourth, and Democrats aren't likely to put out a serious challenge. Douglas's only worry is Vermont's strong Democratic roots, but don't count on those threatening him this time around.
10. Mississippi (Gov. Barbour)
The third 2007 race. Barbour is running against Democrat John Eaves, but is heavily favored to win re-election. Voters are giving him hard marks for his post-Katrina policies, and give him credit for having helped the state -- despite overwhelming evidence of the contrary. Barbour is also rumored as a VP candidate.
11. West Virginia (Gov. Manchin)
Manchin has been a longtime figure of West Virginia politics, and he has remained popular throughout. WV has been trending Republican in the last decade, but the GOP is looking unlikely to even field a serious candidate.
12. New Hampshire (Gov. Lynch)
New Hampshire has gubernatorial elections every two years. Gov. Lynch won re-election in 2006 with 74% of the vote. Republicans night field a candidate from the state senate, but Lynch is enjoying an extremely high approval rating and he will get another term
13. North Dakota (Gov. Hoeven)
One of the most popular GOP governors in the country running for re-election in one of the most Republican states of the country. Democrats have had lots of success in congressional races (the entire DC delegation is Democratic!), but they won't even dream of unseating Hoeven.
14. Utah (Gov. Huntsman)
See North Dakota. Minus the part about Democrats having occasional statewide success.
With that in mind, let's rank these races, from the most vulnerable to turnover to the one where the incumbent party feels the safest. It immediately appears that very few of these races are likely to be contested at all, especially the ones that will be decided in 2008. Democrats and Republicans will swap Louisiana and Kentucky this fall, and then fight in only two-three states next year. A stark contrast to the 2006 cycle.
- Likely Takeover
The first of the 2007 races. Fletcher has been facing huge allegations of misconduct and has even been indicted. This pushed Anne Northup, a congresswoman defeated in 2006, to challenge him in the primary last spring, but Fletcher inexplicably survived. He is now almost assured of going down in this November's election against Democrat Steve Beshear, who has led every opinion poll by an average 20%. Democrats are now running ads using Northup's words against Fletcher. Count on Fletcher losing his executive immunity in less than two months.
2. Louisiana (Open)
The second of the 2007 races. Republican Bobby Jindal almost became Governor in 2003 but came short against Blanco, who chose earlier this year to not run for re-election given her low approval ratings post-Katrina. Jindal became a House member in 2004, and he now looks unstoppable. Louisiana has no primary system, and the first round will take place in late October. Democrats have fielded weak candidates, and their only hope is to hold Jindal under 50% to force him into a one-on-one runoff in early December, but they would have little chance even then. Louisiana is rapidly drifting Republican.
- Toss-up
Blunt barely won his first term in 2004 against Democrat McKaskill, who since then became Senator. The 2008 campaign started almost immediately, as it became clear that AG Nixon intended to take Blunt on. The race has been nasty for months already. Given Nixon's statewide recognition and Blunt's unpopularity, Nixon might have the slightest of edges.
- Lean Retention
Republicans collapsed in Indiana in 2006 and lost 3 House seats. It was mostly due to the unpopularity of Governor Mitch Daniels, mostly because of his attempt to raise taxes and privatize the state's toll system. Daniels has partially recovered, but he faces still offopposition. Democrats have a competitive primary, with former congresswoman Jill Long-Thompson and architect Jim Schellinger leading for now. A mid-September poll showed Daniels under 50% with a low double-digits lead.
5. Washington (Gov. Gregoire)
Gregoire won against Republican Rossi by only 129 votes in 2004, and only after a third vote count overturned the results of the first two nearly two months after the election. Rossi has vowed to get revenge, and is planning to jump in the race for a bitter rematch. Gregoire started off her term supremely unpopular, but she has since recovered and posts decent ratings. If this election had been held in 2005, Rossi would have walked away with it. In 2008, it will be a very different story.
6. North Carolina (Open)
Mike Easley cannot run for re-election , but Democrats are confident they will overcome the state's Republican lean and keep the governor's mansion. They have a very deep bench in the state, and both the Lieutenant Governor (Beverly Purdue) and the state treasurer (Richard Moore) are running for the nomination (why neither of those two nor Easley is challenging Dole in the Senate race is a mystery to all). Republicans have a few candidates of their own who could pull this off, but they same a tier under the Democratic candidates. This might very well turn into a total toss-up, but not right now.
- Safe
That Delaware is ranked as high as 7 is really a testament to the fact that there aren't that many competitive seats. Gov. Miller cannot run for re-election, and Democrats have a divisive primary in their hand between Lieutenant Governor Carney and state treasurer Markell, who was named one of the DLC's rising stars in 2000. Republicans are only fielding a weak candidate who will likely have no chance against the Democratic nominee.
8. Montana (Gov. Schweitzer)
Brian Schweitzer marked the first step of the Democratic resurgence in the West, and he remains very popular. Republicans might challenge him, but if they manage to convince a top-tier Republican to run for something, they would probably try to push him in the Senate race.
9. Vermont (Gov. Douglas)
Vermont holds elections every two years, and Jim Douglas has already won three terms. He is looking for his fourth, and Democrats aren't likely to put out a serious challenge. Douglas's only worry is Vermont's strong Democratic roots, but don't count on those threatening him this time around.
10. Mississippi (Gov. Barbour)
The third 2007 race. Barbour is running against Democrat John Eaves, but is heavily favored to win re-election. Voters are giving him hard marks for his post-Katrina policies, and give him credit for having helped the state -- despite overwhelming evidence of the contrary. Barbour is also rumored as a VP candidate.
11. West Virginia (Gov. Manchin)
Manchin has been a longtime figure of West Virginia politics, and he has remained popular throughout. WV has been trending Republican in the last decade, but the GOP is looking unlikely to even field a serious candidate.
12. New Hampshire (Gov. Lynch)
New Hampshire has gubernatorial elections every two years. Gov. Lynch won re-election in 2006 with 74% of the vote. Republicans night field a candidate from the state senate, but Lynch is enjoying an extremely high approval rating and he will get another term
13. North Dakota (Gov. Hoeven)
One of the most popular GOP governors in the country running for re-election in one of the most Republican states of the country. Democrats have had lots of success in congressional races (the entire DC delegation is Democratic!), but they won't even dream of unseating Hoeven.
14. Utah (Gov. Huntsman)
See North Dakota. Minus the part about Democrats having occasional statewide success.
posted by Taniel at
3:32 PM
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