December rankings: Not much to see in gubernatorial races
The two most vulnerable seats in my last rankings (Louisiana and Kentucky) were 2007 elections -- and both states saw pick-ups, as Jindal became the new GOP Governor of Louisiana and Democrat Beshear defeat incumbent Fletcher in Kentucky. Meanwhile Mississippi, rated "safe" in September, voted to re-elect Governor Haley Barbour.
That leaves us with 11 races to be decided next year of which only three look to be competitive, not a very reach crop for those who like to follow gubernatorial elections. Democrats can hope to throw out unpopular incumbent governor Indiana and Missouri, while Dino Rossi will try to unseat Governor Gregoire in Washington in a rematch of the 2004 race that Republicans believe Rossi had won. This creates the unusual picture that none of the competitive races are open seats, since the two open goversnorships (Delaware and North Carolina) lean Democratic at this time.
Since the last rankings released in September, there were two changes of rankings: Indiana was upgraded from "lean retention" to "toss-up" as polls indicated that Daniels was in deep trouble; and North Carolina was downgraded from "lean retention" to "likely retention" as Republicans show no intention of seriously challenging the seat.
For descriptions of the races that have no description here and that are rated "Safe", check the previous rankings.
Toss-up
1. Missouri (Gov. Blunt)
This race started years ago, as Attorney General Nixon started campaigning as soon as Blunt won his first term. In this much anticipated show-down, Blunt will have a hard time escaping the burden of the GOP and his own high negatives. The most recent poll has Nixon up big, but most surveys show a tied up race. The partisan intensity the race already has makes it likely the race goes down the wire, with perhaps the tiniest of edges to Nixon.
2. Indiana (Gov. Daniels)
Governor Daniels quickly became very unpopular with his privatization of state tolls and his reform of time zones (I know, strange). But Republicans thought he had recovered a bit, and that Democrats had hurt their chances by failing to recruit a top challenger. I myself had rated this race Lean Retention in September. But with a new poll showing Daniels trailing (though he is statistically tied) both of his Democratic challengers (former Rep. Jill Long-Thompson and architect Jim Schellinger), it appears that Daniels has not only not recovered, but that both Democrats are in a good position to take the governor's mansion.
Since the last rankings, Dino Rossi became a candidate - though no one had any doubt that he was in the race. After Gregoire's contentious 129 votes victory after a third recount in 2004, this is clearly going to go down the wire. Gregoire starts off with a small edge because she has had time to rebuild her image in the past three years and because Washington tilts Democratic -- and that should help, especially in a Democratic year. The GOP was confident of challenging the incumbent Senators in the past two cycles, and kept touting their challenger to Cantwell in 2006 -- and they flopped both times. Dino Rossi is a strong candidate though, and will keep this competitive.
Likely retention
4. North Carolina (Open)
Democratic Governor Easley cannot run due to term-limits, and it's now all about the Democratic primary here between Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue and state Treasurer Richard Moore. A recent poll had Perdue ahead, but by a smaller margin than anticipated, so the Democratic primary could get ugly. However, Democrats remain favored to keep the governship that they have held since 1992. Republicans have much weaker candidates than the well-known Perdue and Moore (business Graham, former state Justice Orr and state Senator Smith) and they will start lagging behind. North Carolina might go Republican in presidential races, but it likes voting Democratic in state elections.
5. Delaware (Open)
Just like North Carolina, the Democratic governor cannot run again and two profile Democrats are vying for their party's nod. Coincidentally, they occupy the same positions as Perdue and Moore: Lt. Gov John Carney and state Treasurer Jack Martell (one of the DLC's rising stars in 2000). Republicans have some candidates, but they are not as high-profile at all (some state Senators) -- and Delaware remains a very Democratic state, which should give Carney or Martell the necessary boost to prevail without too much of a fight.
Safe
6. Montana (Gov. Schweitzer)
7. Vermont (Gov. Douglas)
8. West Virginia (Gov. Manchin)
9. New Hampshire (Gov. Lynch)
10. North Dakota (Gov. Hoeven)
11. Utah (Gov. Huntsman)
That leaves us with 11 races to be decided next year of which only three look to be competitive, not a very reach crop for those who like to follow gubernatorial elections. Democrats can hope to throw out unpopular incumbent governor Indiana and Missouri, while Dino Rossi will try to unseat Governor Gregoire in Washington in a rematch of the 2004 race that Republicans believe Rossi had won. This creates the unusual picture that none of the competitive races are open seats, since the two open goversnorships (Delaware and North Carolina) lean Democratic at this time.
Since the last rankings released in September, there were two changes of rankings: Indiana was upgraded from "lean retention" to "toss-up" as polls indicated that Daniels was in deep trouble; and North Carolina was downgraded from "lean retention" to "likely retention" as Republicans show no intention of seriously challenging the seat.
For descriptions of the races that have no description here and that are rated "Safe", check the previous rankings.
Toss-up
1. Missouri (Gov. Blunt)
This race started years ago, as Attorney General Nixon started campaigning as soon as Blunt won his first term. In this much anticipated show-down, Blunt will have a hard time escaping the burden of the GOP and his own high negatives. The most recent poll has Nixon up big, but most surveys show a tied up race. The partisan intensity the race already has makes it likely the race goes down the wire, with perhaps the tiniest of edges to Nixon.
2. Indiana (Gov. Daniels)
Governor Daniels quickly became very unpopular with his privatization of state tolls and his reform of time zones (I know, strange). But Republicans thought he had recovered a bit, and that Democrats had hurt their chances by failing to recruit a top challenger. I myself had rated this race Lean Retention in September. But with a new poll showing Daniels trailing (though he is statistically tied) both of his Democratic challengers (former Rep. Jill Long-Thompson and architect Jim Schellinger), it appears that Daniels has not only not recovered, but that both Democrats are in a good position to take the governor's mansion.
- Lean Retention
Since the last rankings, Dino Rossi became a candidate - though no one had any doubt that he was in the race. After Gregoire's contentious 129 votes victory after a third recount in 2004, this is clearly going to go down the wire. Gregoire starts off with a small edge because she has had time to rebuild her image in the past three years and because Washington tilts Democratic -- and that should help, especially in a Democratic year. The GOP was confident of challenging the incumbent Senators in the past two cycles, and kept touting their challenger to Cantwell in 2006 -- and they flopped both times. Dino Rossi is a strong candidate though, and will keep this competitive.
Likely retention
4. North Carolina (Open)
Democratic Governor Easley cannot run due to term-limits, and it's now all about the Democratic primary here between Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue and state Treasurer Richard Moore. A recent poll had Perdue ahead, but by a smaller margin than anticipated, so the Democratic primary could get ugly. However, Democrats remain favored to keep the governship that they have held since 1992. Republicans have much weaker candidates than the well-known Perdue and Moore (business Graham, former state Justice Orr and state Senator Smith) and they will start lagging behind. North Carolina might go Republican in presidential races, but it likes voting Democratic in state elections.
5. Delaware (Open)
Just like North Carolina, the Democratic governor cannot run again and two profile Democrats are vying for their party's nod. Coincidentally, they occupy the same positions as Perdue and Moore: Lt. Gov John Carney and state Treasurer Jack Martell (one of the DLC's rising stars in 2000). Republicans have some candidates, but they are not as high-profile at all (some state Senators) -- and Delaware remains a very Democratic state, which should give Carney or Martell the necessary boost to prevail without too much of a fight.
Safe
6. Montana (Gov. Schweitzer)
7. Vermont (Gov. Douglas)
8. West Virginia (Gov. Manchin)
9. New Hampshire (Gov. Lynch)
10. North Dakota (Gov. Hoeven)
11. Utah (Gov. Huntsman)
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10:42 AM
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